By Graham Lloyd

September 19, 2017 - Renewable energy, gas and ­nuclear power will be the world’s fastest growing forms of energy up to 2040 but fossil fuels, led by coal, will continue to be the backbone of electricity production for decades to come.

In its latest outlook report, the US Energy Information Administration said world energy consumption would rise 28 percent between 2015 and 2040 with most of the increase occurring in the rapidly developing Asian region. Fossil fuels will still account for more than three-quarters of world energy consumption at the end of that period.

Despite a projected trend against coal, world production is still projected to rise 3 percent from 2015 to 2040, almost reaching 9.4 billion short tons.

China, India, Australia and the US will remain the largest coal producing nations to 2040 with Australia the world’s biggest ­exporter.

Regardless of high hopes for electric cars, petroleum and other liquids will remain the largest source of energy towards mid-century. Gas will be the world’s fastest growing fossil fuel with ­declines in coal use in China and OECD regions offset by growth in coal use in India and other non-OECD Asian nations, the EIA ­report said. “China remains the largest single consumer of coal in 2040 despite a steady decline in the country’s consumption over time,” the report said.

The use of coal in Chinese electricity generation is projected to rise slightly through to 2023 and then slowly fall to less than the 2015 level by 2035.

India’s coal consumption will continue to grow an average 2.6 percent a year from 2015 to 2040, with the country overtaking the US as the second largest coal consumer before 2020.

Africa, the Middle East, and other non-OECD Asian countries are projected to gradually ­expand coal capacity and generation through to 2040 with coal consumption there forecast to rise 2.4 percent a year from 2015 to 2040 maintaining a 20 percent share of total energy consumption

The EIA report said many countries would “continue to take advantage of coal’s relatively low cost in their efforts to further ­develop their economies’’.

Asia will remain the world’s largest importer of coal in 2040 and Australia and Indonesia will remain the largest exporters.

Coal was projected to grow gradually from 2015 to 2040 at an average rate of 1 percent a year as countries other than China ­increased their demand in industrial applications and electricity generation.

Globally, renewables including hydro-electricity, and natural gas, would provide much of the growth in electricity generation.

The report said wind, solar and hydro would be the fastest-growing sources of generation over the period 2015-40 “as technological improvements and government incentives in many countries support their increased use.”

Natural gas generation was forecast to grow an average 2.1 percent a year to 2040 and nuclear 1.5 percent a year.

Coal’s share of electricity generation overall would decline from 40 percent in 2015 to 31 percent by 2040, the same level forecast for renewable at that time.

China’s use of coal will start to decline by 2030. It is expected to fall from 72 percent in 2015 to 47 percent in 2040. “By displacing coal with renewables, nuclear and natural gas China is projected to achieve its maximum level of CO2 emissions before its 2030 target deadline,” the report said.