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May 11, 2022 - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 11.9 million barrels per day this year and 12.8 million barrels per day in 2023, which would surpass the record average production of 12.3 million barrels per day set in 2019. Despite the increases in production, EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to remain above $100 per barrel this year, according to the agency’s May 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). “A high level of uncertainty remains in our outlooks, but we have consistently forecast that elevated crude oil prices would help drive record-level annual U.S. oil production levels in 2023,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. “Low global oil inventories coupled with continued high demand for gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products means that increased production likely won’t have much impact on prices in the short term.” EIA also published its annual Summer Electricity Industry Outlook, which forecasts that continued U.S. economic growth will increase electricity use by 0.4% in the United States this summer (June–August) compared with the summer of 2021. EIA forecasts that retail sales of electricity to the industrial sector will grow by 2.8% and by 1.5% in the commercial sector. EIA expects that U.S. households will use 2.9% less electricity this summer compared with last summer, largely because of weather forecasts for a cooler summer this year. Higher electricity prices mean that the average U.S. household will pay about the same amount for electricity this summer as last summer. Other key takeaways from the May 2022 STEO forecast include:
The entire May 2022 STEO is available on the EIA website. |
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