November 8, 2023 - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global liquid fuels production to increase by 1.0 million barrels per day next year. We expect OPEC+ production cuts will remain in place through the end of 2024 and offset non-OPEC production growth. EIA expects a slight decline in global oil inventories in early 2024.
In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average about $93 per barrel in 2024, up by over $9 per barrel from this year. Risks of supply disruptions and price volatility are heightened amid potential conflict spreading in the Middle East.
In addition, EIA forecasts that U.S. motorists will consume less gasoline per capita in 2024, resulting in the lowest gasoline consumption in two decades. “U.S. motorists are driving less because they aren't commuting to work every day, newer gasoline-fueled vehicles are more efficient, and there are more electric vehicles on the road,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. “Put those trends together with high gasoline prices and high inflation, and we find that U.S. motorists are using less gasoline.”
Other highlights from the November STEO include:
The full November 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook available on the EIA website. EIA also published a Between the Lines supplement detailing our evolving forecast for Russia’s petroleum liquids production and trade and updated our forecast for seasonal heating expenditures in the Winter Fuels Outlook.