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Trump Energy Allies Anticipate Boom Times for Oil, Gas, Mining

 

 

November 12, 2024 - Former President Trump’s election victory has sent a jolt of enthusiasm through the fossil fuel and mining industries as they anticipate a favorable regulatory environment under his incoming administration. 


The president-elect’s Republican allies, meanwhile, see a fresh opportunity for policies like long-stalled energy permitting reforms.


Trump, who withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement and rolled back numerous energy and environmental regulations in his first term, vowed to take a similar approach in a second term on the campaign trail. 


The president-elect has also pledged to boost domestic oil and gas production, including by opening new lands for drilling, and disparaged forms of renewable energy such as wind and solar, calling for an end to “insane wind subsidies” on his campaign website.


The oil and gas industry threw its support behind his 2024 campaign, donating more than $14 million toward his reelection.


In the wake of his victory, the industry is hopeful he’ll deliver on his promises and roll back regulations put in place by the Biden administration.


“[T]here are clearly some specific things right away that we encourage them to consider,” Amanda Eversole, chief operating officer at the American Petroleum Institute, told The Hill, such as lifting the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) “tailpipe mandates” requiring a greater share of automakers’ new products to be hybrid or electric.


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Those EPA rules came up frequently on the campaign trail in the key state of Michigan, where Trump beat Vice President Harris but Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) defeated former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) in the race to succeed outgoing Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D).


“We want to make sure that we stop this flawed approach, and we think the administration can move quickly,” Eversole told The Hill. “We also [think], depending on their approach, the courts could certainly stop it as well, because we think there’s a strong chance of victory.”


The National Mining Association, the main lobbying group for the mining industry, is also sanguine about the likelihood of industry-friendly policies from the incoming administration. 


In a statement to The Hill, CEO Rich Nolan called for the Trump administration to freeze new carbon pollution standards for existing coal plants and restrictions on coal mining on public lands.


“We need to see a balanced energy policy that once again reflects reality and the fact that affordable, reliable energy and environmental stewardship are not mutually exclusive,” Nolan said.


The EPA finalized a new set of rules cracking down on power plant emissions earlier this year, which included regulations on existing coal plant emissions and the disposal of coal waste.


Other restrictions on coal plants were partially rolled back by the courts under the Biden administration, which saw one of its biggest setbacks on environmental regulations in 2022 when the conservative-majority Supreme Court sided with a group of Republican state attorneys general and overturned the Obama-era Clean Power Plan. The plan had regulated the transition of power plants to renewable energy.


Energy permitting reform will also likely be on the agenda under the coming administration, according to Heather Reams, president of Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, a Republican-leaning think tank that advocates for renewable energy development.


Permitting reform to speed up the nation’s energy and infrastructure projects has been a major agenda item for outgoing Senate Energy Committee Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), but Congress has been unable to pass a bill after years of efforts to reach a deal.


Over the summer, Manchin and Energy Committee Ranking Member John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) introduced a comprehensive permitting reform bill, but the measure has yet to receive a vote.


With the GOP winning control of the Senate, Reams said predicted permitting reform will be on a faster track, with the chamber likely taking up a measure more in line with the one introduced in the House by Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.).


The second Trump administration is also likely to incentivize liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, Reams added. The first Trump Energy Department heavily promoted LNG, dubbing it “freedom gas,” and the industry has continued to grow under the Biden administration as well despite a temporary pause on new export licenses that has been halted by a federal court.


The incoming administration is likely to take further steps to “remov[e] the barriers” for both production and exports, Reams said.


“On day one, the Trump administration should lift the LNG pause. That is clearly something that sends a signal to our allies around the world is reducing investment here in the United States, and by the way, contracts are currently being given to countries other than the United States, for the LNG that countries need outside of the United States,” Eversole said. “And these are not short-term contracts. These are decades-long contracts. And so therefore we miss opportunities now. We won’t have opportunities in the in the medium term.”


Reams added that the path forward on other energy policies is more of a question mark. “There’s other pieces that I think are also important in thinking about… [corporate average fuel economy] standards and if they’re going to continue on, or anything that’s going to be helping to reduce emissions, I think we’re going to see a lot of changes there,” she said, referencing the regulations governing vehicles’  fuel efficiency.


Another major unknown, she said, is guidance for tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). While the IRA received zero Republican votes in Congress, a coalition of 18 House Republicans recently called on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) not to push for a repeal of all of the law’s renewable energy tax credits.


In the coming administration, Reams said, those tax credits are likely “under threat.”


“I know we’re not taking for granted that any of them are protected and we’re going to have to make a case,” she said. “We’re having those kinds of conversations right now internally among Republicans. That tells me that a lot is on the table here.”