Even Trump acknowledged the potential financial harms in store for American farmers as a result of his tariffs. During his joint address to Congress Tuesday evening, Trump asked farmers who could be hurt by the tariffs in an already inflation-weary economy to “bear with me” and said, “there’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that. It won’t be much.” 

On Thursday, Trump announced that he would once again delay some of the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for anther month after conversations he had with government officials from both countries.

For some, like Northrup, there is a belief these tariffs will harm the American farmer and damage the industry for several years.

Others in Wyoming’s core industries believe that it is too early to tell what will happen, and they want to trust the president’s call to bear with him.

But after delaying the tariffs for a second time, some believe it is a real possibility these tariffs will never go into effect and are merely a tactic to force a renegotiation of the USMCA, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a free trade agreement between the three countries that Trump negotiated in his first term.

Instead of a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, goods wholly produced in North America will continue to be traded duty-free under USMCA rules. The administration has also carved potash out of the tariffs for the next month, a key ingredient in fertilizer. Currently, 85% of U.S. potash imports come from Canada. However, the Trump administration has imposed a 10% levy on energy imported to the U.S. from Canada, primarily impacting northeast states.

Trump followed through with doubling a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports he announced last month to a 20% tariff on Tuesday.

Canada, China and Mexico have all announced they would impose retaliatory tariffs on American exports if Trump follows through with the tariff plans.

The Yale University Budget Lab has estimated that the tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico, when implemented, would increase inflation by a full percentage point, cut growth by half a percentage point and cost the average household about $1,600 in disposable income. 

Wait and see

During the trade war between the U.S. and China between 2018 and 2020, the Trump administration distributed around $26 billion in taxpayer dollars to bail out farmers harmed by the administration’s trade policies.

Trump has yet to announce any financial relief to American industries impacted by the tariffs this time around.

Northrup said he is not confident farmers will see any relief this time, citing the federal government’s ongoing efforts to slash spending.

“(If there is no relief), you’ll either ride it out, or you’ll give it up and quit farming,” Northrup said.

Others in Wyoming’s core industries, however, expressed more of a willingness to see how the tariffs will play out before passing judgment.

Travis Deti, executive director of the Wyoming Mining Association, said it’s best to “wait and see” how things will be for now, whether the tariffs will be good for business in the long run or whether they will be a useful trade negation tactic.

“It does inject a certain amount of uncertainty, and my industry thrives on certainty. So, I think there’s, you know, obviously some concerns about the uncertainty of where you’re going to be from month to month,” he said. “But, until the stuff really gets up and running, and we’re hitting the ground with tariffs, it’s just hard to say what’s going to happen.”

Ryan McConnaughey, vice president and director of communications for the Wyoming Petroleum Association, corroborated this sentiment.

“Just given the fact that the energy markets are so integrated and global in nature, it’s really hard to tell what the impacts of the tariffs will be,” he said. “Wyoming refineries use both U.S. and Canadian crude oil, and Mexico is our No. 1 export destination for refined products coming from the U.S. So, I would say it’s probably too early to tell what the impact to Wyoming producers will be, but I’m sure there will be impacts.” 

According to data from the Office of the United States Trade Representative, Wyoming exported $2.1 billion worth of goods to the world in 2024. In 2022, exports from Wyoming supported an estimated 6,000 jobs.

The state’s largest market is Canada. In 2024, Wyoming exported $401 million in goods to Canada — 19% of total goods exported.

In 2022, the most recent data available, Wyoming’s top three exports were beef and veal, other livestock products, and other plant products, in that order — all industries that would be particularly impacted if the Trump administration follows through with a tariff on potash.

Short-term negotiation tactic

Todd Fornstrom, president of the Wyoming Farm Bureau Federation, said he just hopes the tariffs do not last too long.

He recently returned from a trip to the nation’s capital to meet with Wyoming’s representatives and senators and other members of the national Farm Bureau Federation. He said the tariffs were a hot topic of conversation this past week.

“Our policy, yes, we want free trade,” he said. “Tariffs are never something that we want, but we do understand that when we’re talking about security in trade, fair trade, tariffs are sometimes the tool that we use to get to what we need.”

Fornstrom said he hopes the threat of tariffs will be enough to renegotiate the USCMA, and that the tariffs are short-lived if they must go into place because of the harm it could have on American and Wyoming farmers.

If no relief is provided to farmers and the tariffs are in place for a while, Fornstrom said he would be concerned, but said farmers throughout history have been resilient. 

Anne Alexander is vice provost for strategic planning and initiatives for academic affairs at the University of Wyoming. She has spent most of her career researching American economics.

After Trump walked back on his initial plans to implement full tariffs on Canada and Mexico this week, Alexander said it could be one or both of two things.

First, it could likely be a trade negotiation tactic. She said that Trump may be using the next month to get something that the trade partners are not currently delivering on.

Second, Alexander said the delay could also be an attempt to devalue the U.S. dollar to help trade balances.

She added that a trade war with a competitor like China is more typical than a trade war with allies like Canada and Mexico.

“A trade war with allies is a lot more unusual because it will end up hurting your producers and consumers, and it hurts profit margins, and therefore it hurts employee wages,” she said.

Many times, a tariff regime will last for an entire presidential administration. However, Alexander said she would be surprised if these tariffs, and the retaliatory tariffs that would be imposed on American exports, would remain as high as 25% because the USMCA is up for renegotiation.

“If that’s the case, then (the tariffs) would be short-lived,” she said. “There may be higher tariffs on other things that come through that negotiation, but probably not across the board at 25%.”