By Frank Clemente and Fred Palmer; Coal is the Cornerstone LLC.

June 8, 2025 - Note: This is Part 1 of a two-part piece on the role coal plays in China’s historic move forward.  Coal’s importance in China’s economic leap is widely recognized, but the dramatic impact of coal on the Chinese quality of life has received less attention. Part 2 will discuss China’s ongoing buildout of advanced coal plants to meet the energy needs of 1.4 billion people while significantly reducing emissions.  

“Coal has underpinned China’s massive and unprecedented growth in output, fueling an economic miracle” The International Energy Agency (IEA)

In 2000, the National Academy of Engineering identified widespread electrification as the greatest engineering achievement of the 20^th Century. The first power plant, Pearl Street Station in Manhattan, used coal and the stage was set for generations to come. Coal-based electricity brought the United States to the center of the World’s economic stage and now China is following that same pathway to modernity and societal progress. In 2000, coal produced about 990 Terawatt Hours (TWh) of electricity in China. By 2024, coal produced upwards of 6,000 TWh—an increase of 500% in a quarter century. This dramatic rise in coal power stimulated massive improvements in the quality of life of the population. In 2000, the Infant Mortality Rate in China was 30, it is now 5. Access to clean cooking fuels increased from 41% of the population to well over 90%. Availability of clean water increased from 45% of households to 99%. Life expectancy increased from 72 to 78, and the Food Production Index rose from 63 to over 112.

But the change in social stratification is the most important measure of societal improvement. The growth of the middle class in China is the largest the world has ever seen, increasing from 39 million people in 2000 to rapidly approaching 1 billion today.   The middle class is the backbone of any society, and such households typically have enough income to satisfy their basic needs – food, clothing, and shelter – with disposable income for additional consumption and savings. The availability of coal-driven electricity was the material foundation for this progress in China. In 2000, electricity use per capita was 993 kWh, it is now over 6,100-- more than Germany. In essence, through the benefits of coal-based electricity, China, with over 1.4 billion people, became a modern nation in a little more than two decades. Coal made the difference.

The social progress of China was closely paralleled by the economic growth that brought China to stand as the second largest economy.  China's GDP of $1.1 Trillion in 2000 was 11% of that of the US. China’ GDP is now 63% of America’s and the gap is closing. The financial fortunes of Chinese citizens have greatly improved as the GDP per capita has risen from $949 in 2000 to about $13,000 today.

Question: “How did China industrialize so quickly?” Answer: Coal. The world was caught flat footed by the rapidity with which China was able to utilize coal-based electricity to jump forward. In the 2000 World Energy Outlook (WEO), the IEA projected coal generating capacity would increase from the then current 212 GW to 499 GW in 2020.  By 2020, however, the actual coal generation capacity was over 1,000 GW. Similarly, in 2000, the IEA projected China’s coal generation would increase from about 990 TWh  to about 2,600 TWh in 2020.  But, by 2020, generation from coal exceeded 4,800 TWh and was well on its way toward 6,000 TWh.

China used the increased availability of power to build up its heavy industry. China is the world's leader in manufacturing and produces almost half of the world’s steel—and almost all of that steel comes from coal energy. China's leading export is electrical machinery and equipment, which comprise over a quarter of total exports. In fact, it is essential to recognize that China, the world’s top exporter, produces the vast majority of these products through coal-based electricity.

For example, China produces 80% of the world’s solar panels and relies on large coal plants to generate the energy for its solar PV manufacturing. These factories are concentrated in the Xinjiang and Jiangsu provinces where coal accounts for more than 75% of the power supply. China also holds the largest e-commerce market in the world, accounting for 42% of retail e-commerce. This market share would not exist without coal power. China is active in artificial intelligence development and construction of data centers. None of this could proceed without base load power from coal.

In short, China’s move to the top hierarchy of global economies would not have been accomplished, and cannot be maintained, without coal-based electricity. The Chinese recognize this reality and are steadily building coal plants to support the electrification of the Nation. Coal currently provides over 60% of electricity and China has recommitted to expanding its coal fleet. Construction of plants to produce an additional 94 GW began in 2024 and represents the highest level of new coal projects since 2015. Further,130 GW of coal plants are expected to come online in 2025 alone. Finally, coal mining permits of more than 200 GW of coal-fired power capacity have been approved.

China is steadily developing a foundation of baseload coal electricity which will enable them to successfully compete in an increasingly electrified world. American leaders from the White House to Congress to State regulators need to recognize that 24/7 power is crucial to building artificial intelligence and its associated data centers as well as meeting the energy needs of other segments of the economy. Nuclear is too expensive and will take decades to get off the ground.  The EIA recognizes natural gas is a geologically constrained resource and projects generation from gas will decline. Finally, a hodgepodge of intermittent solar and wind with batteries cannot meet the baseload criteria of a modern society. America has 27% of the world’s coal. This coal is the most available, reliable and affordable fuel for the US to meet unprecedented demand for electric power for decades to come.

Part 2 will discuss China’s ongoing buildout of coal plants to meet the energy needs of 1.4 billion people through High Efficiency, Low Emission Technology (HELE) 

Note: Coal is the Cornerstone seeks to give a voice to supporters of coal in its many dimensions and contributions. But we need help and ask like-minded individuals and companies supporting coal to make a financial contribution to the effort. Please contact Fred Palmer (vapalmers@aol.com) for details as to how you can support the fight for coal.

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Frank Clemente PhD Is Professor Emeritus at Penn State University. He specializes in research on the socioeconomic impact of energy policy and is the author of The Global Value of Coal, published by the International Energy Agency (2012). Professor Clemente has extensive experience in speaking, writing and presenting data on the value of coal to the United States and the world. All opinions expressed here are presented independently from the University.

Fred Palmer Esq. served as CEO of Western Fuels before he joined Peabody Energy as Senior Vice President for Government Affairs. Palmer was Chair of the World Coal Association Board and a member of the National Coal Council. He received the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers Award for “Distinguished Achievement in Coal Technology”.  He also received a Statement of Appreciation from the National Coal Council in 2015 with a plaque for “Guidance since 1990”.