July 20, 2018 - Data reported to federal officials suggests Cloud Peak Energy Inc. could post a weak second quarter in the face of ongoing domestic coal pricing pressures.

Cloud Peak’s three coal mines reported 11.6 million tons of coal production in the second quarter, down 3.7% from 12.1 million tons in the prior quarter and falling 17.8% from the 14.1 million tons of coal produced in the second quarter of 2017, according to data reported to the U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration. It was the lowest production quarter for the company since its IPO in 2009, Seaport Global Securities LLC analyst Mark Levin wrote in a July 16 note.

“While [the second quarter] is typically a weak quarter for all [Powder River Basin] producers, we think [Cloud Peak’s] production, even by those standards, is a disappointment,” Levin wrote. “We suspect low natural gas prices, coal plant retirements, and increased use of renewables continue to weigh on demand.”

Levin added that while export markets are a bright spot, that does not offset underlying concerns about domestic demand for Powder River Basin coal. He reiterated a neutral rating on the company.

MSHA data shows quarter-over-quarter production increased by more than a half a million tons at Cloud Peak’s Spring Creek mine, which is where the company generally sources the coal it sells into export markets. However, the company’s domestic utility-focused Antelope and Cordero Rojo mines both significantly lowered coal production compared to the same quarter a year ago. 

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