December 27, 2022 - President Biden’s climate vision is to transition energy from fossil fuels to renewables in the electricity sector of the US economy. One of the goals is 80% of electricity generation from renewables by the year 2030. 

This is a stretch because renewables now contribute just 40% if nuclear is included along with solar, wind, and hydroelectric (Figure 1). In just 7-8 years, the US has to go from 40% of current total electric energy of about 4,000 GigaKiloWattHours/Year (GKWH/Y) to 80% of a larger number of GKWH/Y since it’s expected the US will need more than 4,000 GKWH/Y of total energy by 2030. 

But how much of a stretch is it? Let’s put some numbers together to see how feasible this goal is, and what might be the consequences for the oil and gas industry. 

Growth of renewables needed to meet Biden’s goal. 

The EIA provide a history of US electricity generation through 2021 (Figure 2). The numbers are given in Table 1. For 2021, renewables (including nuclear as defined above) amount to 40%. To raise this to 80% immediately would require another 40% or 186 GW of renewables. The total US supply is 466 GW.

If the EIA projection to 2030 is used instead, total power would be 4,570 instead of 4,080 GKWH/Y and reaching 80% of this total would require an additional 157 GW. Note, this 157 GW is lower than the 186 GW in 2021 because the 157 GW lies on top of a projected increase in renewable electricity out to 2030. 

Also, this projection is EIA’s Reference Case. They also include four other projection cases which are not considered here.

Realistically, the additional growth of renewables until 2030 would be closer to 157 GW. But if solar and wind capacity of 186 GW were installed magically in one year, 2023, this supply would continue, with maintenance, to fill the gap of 157 GW and meet the 80% goal needed for 2030.Forbes Business00:4001:06