March 15, 2024 - The nation’s largest power market risks losing nearly 58,000 megawatts in mostly fossil fuel power-generating capacity before 2030, potentially driving up prices for consumers to keep old power plants online, according to the market’s independent monitor.

More than 33,000 megawatts of the 57,694 megawatts are at risk of closure in the PJM Interconnection, which stretches from the mid-Atlantic to Chicago, are struggling to stay afloat because of the rapid drop in prices in the region’s capacity market. Another 19,600 megawatts face early retirement because of regulatory requirements.

That estimate, released as part of the Independent Market Monitor’s annual State of the Market briefing on Thursday, is about 18,000 megawatts higher than what PJM projected last year.

Those possible power plant losses are compounded by a “slow and tortured” interconnection system that struggles to bring new resources online, according to IMM President Joseph Bowring, who has tracked the market for more than two decades.