A New Look at Carbon Capture and Storage Opportunities in Pennsylvania

 

 

April 16, 2024 - Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one strategy to mitigate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that contribute to climate change. CCS is particularly important for decarbonizing hard-to-abate industries, including steel, cement, and petrochemical production, with significant footprints Pennsylvania. There are multiple geologic formations in the western and northern portions of the state that have been identified for potential use for permanent geologic storage of CO2. This report details the magnitude of storage capacity for CO2 in Pennsylvania based on publicly available and private data. Key findings of this assessment are as follows:

• CATF identified 219 facilities in Pennsylvania which could benefit from CCS technology subsidized by the 45Q tax credit to transition to a decarbonized future. These facilities have CO2 emissions above the current Internal Revenue Service (IRS) thresholds and are therefore eligible for receiving tax incentives (18,750 metric tons per year for 59 electricity generation facilities; 12,500 metric tons per year for another 160 other industrial facilities), totaling nearly 82.5 million metric tons per year. These are distributed relatively evenly from east to west across the state, with a somewhat greater percentage in the southern half of Pennsylvania. Of these facilities, those in the western part of the state are closer to the better quality storage potential.
• The geologic formations (saline aquifers) with sufficient, publicly available data to serve as the basis of an assessment were the Knox, Oriskany, Lockport, Onondaga, Bass Islands, and Medina formations. The best formations appear to be the Lockport and Knox formations, with the combined theoretical CO2 storage capacity of 510 to 1,640 million metric tons. These figures represent a higher-confidence estimate of true storage capacity than previous analysis and signal promising potential. As more formations are characterized and more data is available for closer analysis, confidence of true storage capacity will increase.
• Based on data primarily from analog oil fields and information in the National Carbon Sequestration Database (NATCARB),1 the assessed formations are mostly characterized with very low permeability, which may make CO2 injection at commercially viable rates challenging. However, if high permeability areas – closer to the upper limit of their ranges found in the literature – are found in these formations, CO2 storage volumes sufficient for smaller emissions industrial facilities may be achievable.
• Other possible storage options potentially exist in Pennsylvania other than deep saline aquifers. Perhaps most promising of these are storage in depleted oil and gas fields. In theory, storage in the Marcellus and Utica shales may also be feasible, along with the commercial pursuit of geologic storage opportunities in states west of Pennsylvania.
• In most cases, CO2 pipelines will likely be necessary to transport CO2 from where it is captured to where it will be stored due to geologic considerations of the emissions site and the geographical distribution of sources. This is particularly true for the 109 45Q-eligible facilities emitting more than 50 million metric tons of CO2 in the eastern part of the commonwealth, where the geology is likely unsuitable for storage.

 

 

Figure ES-1: Stylized Relationship between CO2 Sources and Potential Storage Capacity for the Combined Lockport and Knox Formations 

 

 

 

 

 

 Introduction and Objective 

 

 

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one strategy to mitigate fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that contribute to climate change. Carbon capture and storage involves capturing CO2 emissions from industrial facilities and fossil-fuel-burning power plants that would otherwise be emitted to the atmosphere, the transport, and the subsequent storage of the CO2 in porous, subsurface geologic formations via CO2 injection wells. 

 

 

Pennsylvania has multiple geologic formations in the western and northern portions of the state that have been identified as potential targets for permanent geologic storage of CO2. In fact, a recent study by the Great Plains Institute identified western Pennsylvania as a potential area to act as a major CCS hub.2 

 

 

The objective of this report is to assess and characterize the options for CO2 storage in Pennsylvania. The report examines local storage capacity to allow CO2 emissions sources sitting above potential CO2 storage reservoirs to gauge their potential for a CO2 sequestration project. Storage capacity estimates were developed using publicly available information, along with proprietary data contained in Advanced Resources International’s (ARI’s) database of geologic and reservoir information on oil fields potentially amenable to CO2 EOR. Options for regional storage outside of Pennsylvania were also considered.

CO2 Emissions Sources in Pennsylvania

 

 

Despite the technological maturity of carbon capture, economic challenges remain, as underscored in a 2022 Team PA report.3 Under the 2022 policy environment, many emissions sources in Pennsylvania were not economically capturable. Facility-level carbon capture costs depend on the volumetric flow rate of flue gas, as well as its CO2 concentration and purity. Moreover, transport and storage costs depend on factors like distance to the storage site, scale, monitoring, and geologic considerations. 

 

 

Later in 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provided critical enhancements to the 45Q tax credit, which offers economic incentives for carbon capture and storage. Originally enacted in 2008 and reformed in 2018, 45Q underwent further revisions, elevating the credit value from $50/metric ton to $85/metric ton for CO2 captured from industrial and power generation sources and stored permanently in saline geologic formations.4 The IRA not only increased the credit value of 45Q, but also broadened the scope of qualified facilities through a reduction in capture thresholds. The threshold was lowered from 500,000 metric tons of CO2 emitted per year to 18,750 metric tons for power generation facilities and from 100,000 metric tons of CO2 emitted per year to 12,500 metric tons for other facilities. Power generation facilities must capture at least 75% of the emitted CO2 to be eligible for 45Q incentives. 

 

 

CATF analysis found that the recent IRA enhancements allowed an additional 140 facilities in Pennsylvania emitting more than 7.5 million metric tons in 2022 to become eligible for 45Q incentives, up from the 79 previously eligible. Those 219 eligible facilities in Pennsylvania (that are above the current IRS thresholds for receiving 45Q tax credits) produced direct CO2 emissions totaling 82.5 million metric tons in 2022.5 These 219 sources are distributed relatively evenly from east to west across the Commonwealth. Table 1 provides an overview of the eligible facilities, highlighting the impact of the latest 45Q enhancements based on reported 2022 emissions. 

 

 

Table 1: Summary of CO2 Sources in Pennsylvania with Emissions Greater than Federal 45Q Tax Incentive Facility Category Thresholds

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The locations of emissions sources in Pennsylvania associated with electricity generation facilities are shown in Figure 1, while those for other industrial facilities are shown in Figure 2. The figures show that sources are geographically distributed somewhat evenly throughout the state, though trend a little more to the southern half of the state.

 

 

 

 

Figure 1: Pennsylvania Sources with CO2 Emissions above 18,750 Metric Tons per Year: Electricity Generation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Figure 2: Pennsylvania Sources with CO2 Emissions above 12,500 Metric Tons per Year: Industrial Facilities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Saline CO2 Storage Opportunities in Pennsylvania

 

 

 

 

Advanced Resources International (ARI) developed an approach to estimate the potential CO2 storage capacity in Pennsylvania in deep saline aquifers and determined the portion of this capacity that could be technically and commercially accessible. Geologic storage capacity for CO2 is often estimated using the porosity (i.e., the pore space in the rock that could effectively accommodate CO2)6 and the thickness of the geologic formation that makes up the storage unit.

 

 

 

 

This approach is described in detail in the Appendix to this report.

 

 

 

 

The geologic formations that had sufficient, publicly available data that could be used in this assessment were the Knox, Oriskany, Lockport, Onondaga, Bass Islands, and Medina formations. Reservoir property data from NATCARB were used to develop capacity maps to characterize the spatial distribution of storage capacity in each formation. The maps distinguish higher quality capacity from total capacity using a threshold defined in terms of metric tons/square mile, thus illustrating the quality of the storage capacity in each formation.

 

 

 

 

The summary of the results of the application of this approach for the target formations investigated is shown in Table 2. A capacity threshold of 2.0 million metric tons per square mile was chosen to screen for areas that would allow a plume size less than 10 square miles (assuming an injection rate of one million metric tons per year for 20 years). This represents a smaller sized industrial facility instead of a large electricity generation facility.

 

 

 

 

As shown in Table 2, the higher capacity estimated in the Lockport and Knox formations are the result of much greater thicknesses derived from the isopach shapefiles used to make the maps. In these two formations, most of the storage capacity potential is more than the 2 million metric tons per square mile threshold, where most of the estimated capacities of the other formations are below the assumed threshold.

 

 

 

 

 

Thus, based solely on capacity, this would indicate that the Lockport and Knox formations in western Pennsylvania have the highest relative storage capacity in the state, with a total theoretical CO2 storage capacity of 510 to 1,640 million metric tons.