July 24, 2024 - Hot weather is driving up coal consumption, and coal production is expected to follow suit, according to the latest forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 

June coal consumption across the United States electric power sector increased by 37% from May, per the EIA. The administration predicts coal-fired electric power consumption to increase by 19% in July and 3% in August, reaching 45 million short tons as utilities ramp up generation in response to summer air-conditioning needs. 

“Based on our updated forecast of electricity demand that increases coal-fired generation, we expect the U.S. electric power sector will consume about 395 MMst of coal in 2024,” the EIA said in its most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook. 

According to the EIA, heightened consumption should lead to heightened coal production, which is forecast to increase throughout the summer months. By the end of the summer, coal consumption should have increased by 69% from May while production should have increased by 33%. 

However, with consumption outpacing coal production and exports ramping up following the Francis Scott Key bridge collapse in late March, the EIA believes electric power coal stocks will plummet to 113 MMst in August, a decline of 24 MMst from May. 

“We expect stocks to start rising again in the fall as overall electricity generation falls, sharply reducing consumption,” the EIA says, adding that stocks are forecast to end the year at 15 MMst, a decline of 12% from levels recorded in 2023. Looking forward to 2025, the administration believes stocks will plummet further to 85 MMst due to less coal production and rising coal exports.