October 8, 2024 - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects most U.S. households, on average, will pay about the same to heat their homes as they did last winter. A notable exception is that EIA expects Midwestern homes heated by natural gas will pay about 11% more on average for heat than last winter.

In its 2024 Winter Fuels Outlook, EIA forecasts a colder winter, leading to more energy consumption for heat. With energy prices similar to or slightly lower than last winter, EIA expects spending for many households will be about the same as last winter.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty about the weather over an entire season—not to mention uncertainty over commodity prices,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis.

Comparing this winter’s forecast for the average U.S. household with last winter’s results, EIA expects a 1% increase in fuel bills for homes heated by natural gas, a 5% decrease for homes heated by heating oil, a 2% increase for homes heated by electricity, and a negligible change in costs for homes heated by propane. Because weather is a key source of uncertainty in the forecast, the report also includes a warmer and colder case to produce a range of possible expenditures by fuel type.

The Winter Fuels Outlook is a supplement to EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), and EIA will update it every month through February to reflect changes in commodity prices and temperatures. This year is the first year that EIA’s forecast distinguishes between primary heating fuels consumed for space heating and other end uses.

EIA will host a webinar on Wednesday, October 9, at 11:00 a.m. ET to discuss its forecasts. The webinar is open to the public, but registration is required.

Other highlights from the October STEO include:

• Brent crude oil spot price: EIA expects the Brent crude oil spot price will average about $76 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024 and about $78 per barrel in 2025, both lower than EIA’s September forecast. EIA revised its forecasts because the September Brent spot price was lower than expected and because the agency expects demand for petroleum products will be lower than it previously forecast. The impact of military action in the Middle East is a key source of uncertainty in the crude oil price forecast.
  
  EIA’s revised forecast for crude oil prices also contributed to revisions in the agency’s price forecasts for distillate fuels, gasoline, and other petroleum products, which are reflected in the STEO table of notable revisions.

• U.S. oil production: EIA expects U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025, a record high. EIA had previously expected domestic crude oil production would average 13.7 million barrels per day next year but revised its production forecast lower largely due to its expectation of lower crude oil prices.

• Electricity consumption: EIA expects 2% more U.S. electricity consumption this year than in 2023 and expects a further 2% growth in 2025. Summer temperatures in 2024 were warmer than last summer, especially in the upper Midwest and Northeast regions, which helped to push up U.S. electricity demand this year. Increased electricity consumption through 2025 is led by the industrial sector, as planned battery and semiconductor chip manufacturing comes online. In the commercial sector, electricity demand from data centers in some regions contributes to the forecast for greater electricity demand.

The full October 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website.