October 21, 2024 - The 5 November elections are likely to have an outsized effect on the trajectory of US renewable energy growth, electrification of its economy, and investment in climate-related technologies, such as carbon sequestration and clean hydrogen.

Vice-president Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, has embraced the energy transition and backed policies meant to support a "thriving clean energy economy". In 2022, she cast the tie-breaking vote for the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its vast spending on clean energy, while serving alongside President Joe Biden to support regulations that would cut down on CO2 from power plants and accelerate the transition to electric vehicles (EVs). If elected, Harris would continue to enforce those climate-focused regulations and defend them from challenges in court.

Those policy views are anathema to former president Donald Trump, who has made mocking the energy transition a recurring part of his stump speech. Wind energy is "bullshit" and responsible for causing cancer and killing whales, Trump claims without evidence. He wants to curtail government support for EVs, which he says are straining the grid and wasting taxpayer support, and to "terminate" the clean energy spending in the IRA. And he sees investment in batteries as a boon for China and is sceptical of using hydrogen in transport because he says the fuel is likely to "blow up". Trump plans to again pull the US out of the "horrendously unfair" Paris climate accord and "immediately stop" enforcement of Biden-era energy efficiency rules, his campaign says.

Harris and Trump can unilaterally advance some of their related to clean energy through executive orders and regulatory action, such as revising which energy projects will qualify for billions of dollars in IRA tax credits. But fully repealing clean energy spending or overhauling permitting laws will hinge on control of the US Congress, which polls suggest could again end up with slim majorities in both chambers.

Clean Energy Tax Credits at Risk

The White House estimates that more than $265bn in clean energy investment has been announced since the passing of the IRA more than two years ago, with further energy spending backed by the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law. Those laws will deliver a combined $1 trillion or more in federal funding and tax credits for renewable energy, batteries, electric transmission, clean energy manufacturing, EVs and other climate-related spending over 10 years, according to some estimates. Harris has committed to carry through with that industrial policy and "expand our lead in clean energy innovation and manufacturing", her campaign says, with a goal of building a workforce that will benefit from addressing climate change. Harris wants to finish clean energy projects quickly and efficiently by "cutting red tape".

If elected, Trump plans to "terminate the Green New Deal" and rescind all unspent funds in the IRA, which would free up revenue that could go to other priorities such as tax cuts. But he would face stiff opposition from the industry groups and Republican-led districts that are seeing billions of dollars of investments as a result of the law. In September, 18 House Republicans urged against a "full repeal" that they say would waste billions of dollars and undermine growth in their districts. "I hope we look at it in a surgical way and not just take a sledgehammer to it," Georgia representative Buddy Carter says.

Oil industry officials back some tax credits in the IRA, such as the 45V tax credit for producing low-carbon hydrogen and an expanded tax credit for sequestering carbon. The hydrogen tax credit is driving "a lot of investment" across Republican-led states, ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions vice-president of advocacy Erik Oswald says.

In the US, battery-only EVs are expected to account for more than half of car and passenger truck sales within eight years, under tailpipe standards that environmental regulator EPA finalised this year for model years 2027-32. The rule will require automakers to meet increasingly stringent CO2 limits through options such as more efficient engines and selling a greater share of hybrids and EVs. A tax credit of up to $7,500/vehicle from the IRA will support that regulatory goal, lowering the cost of purchasing EVs that are made in the US.

But Trump says the tailpipe rule — which is being challenged by states and industry groups in court — is an "EV mandate" that will wipe out auto industry jobs and "end" the use of gasoline-powered vehicles. Trump regularly attacks EVs over what he says is the difficulty of finding charging stations, the added weight of batteries, their limited range and their use of imported parts from China. He previously rolled back fuel-economy standards for model year 2022-26 vehicles during his first term. Predictably, oil groups also oppose the EV tax credit. "We don't think it needs this level of support from taxpayers," refiner group American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers president Chet Thompson says.

Harris has yet to say if she wants to change the tailpipe rule, but she rejects its characterisation as a mandate to go electric. "I will never tell you what kind of car you have to drive," she says. With EVs gaining market share globally, Harris says the US needs to develop its manufacturing capacity so it can remain competitive, something she says did not occur when Trump was in the White House. "When it came to building the cars of the future, Donald Trump sat on the sidelines and let China dominate," Harris says.

A rare area of agreement between the campaigns is the threat that EV imports from China — some of which sell for less than $10,000 in China — could pose to US automakers. This year, the Biden-Harris administration issued a 100pc tariff on Chinese EVs in response to alleged "unfair trade practices". Trump says he will go further by imposing a "100pc, 200pc, 2,000pc tariff". And, if elected, Trump says he will tell Mexico and Canada that he wants to renegotiate his own trade agreement, the USMCA, as a way to block Chinese auto parts from being brought into the US through their borders without being subjected to tariffs.

Regulatory Deja Vu

In his first term, Trump dismantled climate regulations such as the Clean Power Plan, which attempted to cut CO2 emissions from existing power plants primarily by reducing how frequently coal and inefficient gas-fired generators would operate. If re-elected, Trump would again work to dismantle replacement regulations from the Biden administration, which would require most existing coal-fired plants to add carbon capture systems or retire by 2032. Harris is "shutting down power plants and destroying our electric grid", Trump says.

Harris has yet to speak in depth on the power sector regulations, but offered support for "tackling the climate crisis" and holding "polluters accountable", her campaign says. If elected, she would be responsible for defending the regulations in court and issuing a replacement rule if it fails to survive litigation. Trump's push to dismantle vast numbers of environmental rules would occur in a relatively untested legal landscape, after the US Supreme Court this summer overturned the decades-old ‘Chevron doctrine' that tended to give federal agencies a built-in advantage in court. The Supreme Court in a separate ruling opened up the possibility of lawsuits against decades-old rules — a possible opening for a Trump administration to work with industry to chip away at long-standing regulations.