February 6, 2025 - West Virginia exports more coal to China than any other state and some producers have expressed serious concerns over a potential trade war.

Countermeasures to President Donald Trump's 10% tariff have some West Virginia coal producers on edge as China fired back with a 15% tariff on coal imports.

The Mountain State exports about 6 million tons of coal to China each year, making up roughly half of all U.S. coal exports to China.

"They could have a dramatic impact. They could evolve to the point where even furloughs of mining operations are considered, " West Virginia Coal Association president Chris Hamilton said.

Coal producers are closely monitoring the situation and are hopeful it will be a short-lived element of trade negotiations between China and America.

The economic grievances for the two countries are complex. Now coal - especially Met coal - is caught in the middle.

Preliminary production estimates for 2024 show coal mined in West Virginia dropped about 2% from the prior year. Exports are seen as critical to coal, even under a Trump administration thought to be friendlier to fossil fuels.

Trade wars have their ups and downs. A Chinese dispute with Australia gave West Virginia a chance to get into the China market in a big way.

"There is real fierce competition from Australia, Indonesia, Columbia and South Africa,” Hamilton said. “There are a lot of available suppliers out there now."

The tariff change pumps up China's total levy on U.S. coal to 18%.

Issues with the industry could show up in the state budget, which partially relies on severance taxes.

A diplomatic solution may still be possible, but whatever the outcome for U.S. coal, West Virginia will feel it the most.