February 17, 2025 - The supposed energy transition from fossil fuels to a suite of government-supported alternatives like wind and solar has always seemed more of a marketing campaign than reality. It’s a transition that we are asked to believe has been ongoing since at least 2015 and the signing of the Paris Climate Accords, yet the percentage of primary energy supplied by oil, natural gas, and coal continues to hover right at the 80% level despite all the trillions of dollars in government subsidies thrown at the problem.

Through it all, the unyielding resilience of coal as the king pin of power generation has remained the leading indicator of the transition’s failure to truly take hold. Several news items from the week just past clearly show coal’s resilience is not fading and may actually be on the rise again.

China Hits New Record In Coal Plant Construction

First, there is a Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) report showing that construction of new coal-fired power plants in China reached a 10-year high in 2024. CREA finds that “China approved 66.7 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power capacity in 2024, with approvals picking up in the second half after a slower start to the year.” It is an indicator that, despite a narrative that China is leading the world in converting its power systems to renewables, the expansion of its coal sector may actually be accelerating again.

As CREA points out, China does lead the world in the installation of wind, solar, and stationary batteries. In fact, its 2024 addition of 356 GW of wind and solar capacity equates to “4.5 times the EU?s additions and nearly equivalent to the total installed wind and solar capacity in the U.S. by the end of the year.” But, the report adds, “instead of replacing coal, clean energy is being layered on top of an entrenched reliance on fossil fuels.”

The authors could have added that China’s reliance on fossil fuels is not only entrenched, but continuing to expand over time. And China isn’t alone.

India’s Coal Use Also On The Rise

The same is true in India, where a new report by Ember finds that, despite that country’s 5.5% cut in coal imports during the first 11 months of 2024, its year-over-year overall coal usage rose by 5.1% thanks to increased domestic mining, the fourth straight year of expanded coal use in the world’s most populous nation (China ranks second).

Ember finds that “Coal-fired plants accounted for 73.4% of total electricity generation over the first eleven months of 2024, which is slightly down from 2023's record of 74.2% but remains the highest coal share among all large economies.” Significantly, the report adds that, “India's consumption of coal for power also expanded geographically in 2024, with a growing share of coal use taking place outside the traditional largest coal-burning states.”

Again, just as in China, King Coal is not just persisting as the leading fuel for power generation in India, it is expanding. It should by now be transparently obvious to even the most fervent promoter of the mythical energy transition that no such transition is possible without the active, focused participation by the world’s two most populated nations.

Coal Regains Favor In The U.S.

Coal has been on the decline in the United States over the last 16 years, as the federal government has mounted an aggressive regulatory effort to force its displacement mainly by natural gas, and, to a lesser extent, wind and solar. But new Energy Secretary Chris Wright signaled that is about to change in the second presidency of Donald Trump.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Wright signaled his intent to halt the closure of additional coal power plants as rapidly rising electricity demand creates a need for more power generation capacity of all kinds.

"Coal has been essential to the United States' energy system for over 100 years,” Wright said. “It's been the largest source of global electricity for nearly 100 years, and it will be for decades to come, so we need to be realistic about that.”

Wright pointed out that the U.S. under both presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama was on a path to shrink the coal power generation sector, an action he says has “made electricity more expensive and our grid less stable.” Indeed, coal remains one of the most affordable forms of power generation available.

Wright’s comments came as welcome news to Michelle Bloodworth, President and CEO of America’s Power, which advocates on behalf of the U.S. coal power providers. Bloodworth told me in an email that “Secretary Wright is correct that affordable, reliable, and secure energy should be the goal, and coal can deliver on all of those fronts. Energy demand is skyrocketing, and shutting down coal plants before replacement sources can be brought online would be a disaster for the American power grid and the economy.”

Michelle Manook, CEO of the global trade group FutureCoal, points out that the U.S. is home to an unrivaled abundance of coal resource, and that advanced technologies are now capable of removing 99% of real pollutants in modern power plants. “The question for US policymakers and the nation’s value chain, with its still 400 years of reserves, is this: Will you lead the modernization and reindustrialization of this critical resource?” she told me.

Manook’s comment about reindustrialization echoes Sec. Wright’s own remarks in a separate interview last week on CNBC. There, Wright promised, “what we will not do is follow the German model,” which he believes the Biden administration was intent upon following. “Germany spent half a trillion dollars, made their electricity two to three times more expensive, and they produce 20 percent less electricity today than they did 15 years ago,” Wright continued, adding, “We’re not going to go down that road. We want affordable, reliable, secure energy and a reindustrialization of America, not deindustrialization of America."

The Bottom Line

As Germany and, more recently, the UK have rapidly deindustrialized their own economies, they have made little, if any, difference in terms of overall reduction in global emissions. What both countries have essentially done is simply transfer their domestic emissions to China and India, both of which continue to expand their own fossil fuel usage to accommodate the heavy industries relocating there.

Sec. Wright’s comments this week signal that, after four years of trodding this path to energy futility, the U.S. is now embarked down a different road that includes more use of its massive coal resource. What it all adds up to is an energy transition that isn’t happening, and perhaps it is time for everyone to recognize that reality.