February 25, 2025 - Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC) +7.4% in Monday's trading after announcing a 25% increase in production capacity at its Blue Creek steelmaking coal project in Alabama.

At the revised nameplate capacity of 6M short tons/year compared to the original production plan of 4.8M short tons/year, Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC) said it expects Blue Creek will generate ~$1.3B of incremental revenues, $735M of incremental adjusted EBITDA, and $637M of incremental free cash flows annually.

The company said the project remains on budget and is expected to be completed on time and within budget, and fully paid for by cash flows generated from operations; the first longwall is forecast to start no later than Q2 2026.

"Simplistically, Warrior will have +9% additional earnings power, and the share price should increase accordingly," Citi analyst Alex Hacking wrote, according to Bloomberg.

"This project represents a transformative opportunity for Warrior through the significant addition of nameplate capacity to address the market dynamics we believe will continue to play out over the near and medium-term," CEO Walt Scheller said.