December 3, 2025 - Over the past week, European thermal coal prices climbed to nearly 98 USD/t after falling a week earlier Quotations found support from colder weather and an increase in German electricity prices, which improved the profitability of coal-fired generation.

Czech energy concern Sev.en Ceska Energie plans to close three coal-fired power plants with a total capacity of 2,394 MW, citing unfavorable economic conditions for their operation. The decommissioning of these facilities, which utilize local lignite, is scheduled for December 2026 or, at the latest, by March 2027.

Renewed hopes for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia put pressure on gas quotations on the TTF hub, which dropped to 348.60 USD/1,000 m3 (-21.38 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU gas storage inventories declined by 4 percentage points to 78%, reflecting high withdrawal rates.

South African High-CV 6,000 jumped to 90-91 USD/t, extending its gains for the fifth consecutive week on the back of improved demand from Vietnam and South Korea. Furthermore, stocks at the RBCT terminal decreased to 3.69 mio t (-0.06 mio t w-o-w).

In India, sponge iron producers and cement companies issued regular inquiries for South African coal throughout the past week; however, finalizing deals remained challenging because of wide bid-offer spreads.

Demand from cement companies is also linked to high coke costs, prompting producers to switch to coal.

The export throughput of the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) in 2025 could exceed 57 mio t, which is 10% higher than the 2024 figure but still significantly below the average level of 70 mio t/year recorded in the 2010s.

According to an industry source, RBCT plans to ship 57.22 mio t of coal this year, compared with 52.08 mio t in 2024. The improvement in RBCT’s export performance is attributed to enhanced rail capacity provided by Transnet, which has been steadily recovering after hitting a 30-year low of 48 mio t in 2023.

In China, spot coal prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao decreased to 117 USD/t. The upward trend on the Chinese market paused and prices corrected downwards amidst growing stockpiles, lower consumption, and increased supply. Intensive vessel arrivals at northern Chinese ports in recent weeks led to inventory build-up, putting pressure on traders and forcing them to sell off stored volumes.

Price pressure also came from Shenhua’s reduction of procurement prices from third-party suppliers. The company lowered its rates by 3-6 RMB/t (0.42-0.85 USD/t) last night, following a cut of 3-5 RMB/t (0.42-0.71 USD/t) on Sunday. Some market participants anticipate a drop in FOB prices of 20-30 RMB/t (2.82-4.24 USD/t) over the next few weeks, given that demand in coastal regions continues to fluctuate at low levels.

According to the latest data, a sharp rise in generation from renewable, hydro, and nuclear power facilities reduced the share of coal-fired power generation in China in November. Total power output in the first half of November grew to its highest seasonal level since 2021; however, coal-fired generation was significantly below 2023-2024 levels, remaining at 2022 marks when China was combating Covid-19 pandemic.

Stocks at 9 major ports increased to 26.15 mio t (+0.67 mio t w-o-w). Inventories at 6 major coastal thermal power plants totalled 14.25 mio t (+0.20 mio t w-o-w), while consumption fell to 793k t/day (-11k t/day w-o-w).

Indonesian 5,900 GAR rose to 83 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR firmed up to 49 USD/t. Indonesian material continued to appreciate because of uncertainty regarding the availability of spot cargoes for January, the rainy season, and supply constraints. Intensifying rainfall is also slowing mining and transshipment operations, particularly where small barges are involved.

Australian High-CV 6,000 dipped below 113 USD/t, while prices for Mid-CV 5,500 surged to an annual high above 87 USD/t, influenced by high prices in China.

Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index gained to nearly 200 USD/t amid low liquidity, as market participants adopted a wait-and-see stance. Meanwhile, suppliers expect demand from India, Southeast Asia, and North Asia to improve and prices to firm up because of tight January supply.

Consequently, some traders believe the price for Premium Low Vol HCC will move above 200 USD/t FOB Australia, regardless of whether Indian authorities approve anti-dumping duties on imported coke or not.