The rating agency maintained Warrior’s B1-PD probability of default rating, B1 rating on senior secured notes, and SGL-1 Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating.

Warrior recently began longwall mining operations at its new Blue Creek mine, with full production expected to start in early 2026. The project, costing between $995-$1,075 million, has seen $888 million spent as of the third quarter of 2025, with remaining expenditures to be completed by the first quarter of 2026.

The Blue Creek development significantly increases Warrior’s production capacity from nearly 8 million short tons to 14 million short tons and improves diversification by adding a low-cost mine with a nearly 40-year reserve life to its portfolio.

Moody’s noted that Warrior funded the nearly $1.1 billion capital cost from internally generated cash flow while maintaining strong leverage metrics despite declining metallurgical coal prices.

The B1 rating reflects Warrior’s high-quality, low-cost metallurgical coal assets and good operating history. The company’s benchmark-quality coal allows it to generate good margins even in weak pricing environments. Warrior also benefits from long-term export contracts through the Port of Mobile in Alabama, serving blast furnace steel producers in Europe, South America, and Asia. 

Rating constraints include operational concentration and the inherent volatility of metallurgical coal prices, though the Blue Creek startup somewhat improves the concentration issue.

Based on a metallurgical coal price assumption of $180 per MT, Moody’s expects Warrior to generate adjusted EBITDA of around $300 million in 2026, driven by increased production from Blue Creek. The company is projected to have modestly negative free cash flow for full-year 2026 due to remaining Blue Creek capital expenditures, but should return to positive free cash flow generation starting in the second quarter of 2026.

As of September 30, 2025, Warrior had approximately $525 million of available liquidity, including $336 million in cash and cash equivalents, $46 million in short-term investments, $2 million in long-term investments, and about $140.5 million available under its $143 million asset-based revolving credit facility.

A rating upgrade could occur if Warrior successfully completes Blue Creek’s development and production ramp-up, demonstrates customer acceptance for the mine’s product, and maintains Moody’s adjusted debt/EBITDA below 1.0x with sustained positive free cash flow.