December 16, 2025 - Fitch expects global demand across key metals, which proved remarkably resilient in 2025, to be adequately supported by loose fiscal policies in the largest economies and continued investments in energy transition. The weaker US dollar also supports performance across commodities, together supporting a ‘neutral’ outlook for the global mining sector in 2026, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.

Medium-term market balances will ultimately drive metals prices. Copper and aluminium markets remain tight, while iron ore and zinc are moving into oversupply. The rally in precious metals is unlikely to last in the long term.

Fitch expects copper and aluminium demand to rise by 2.0%-2.5% in 2026, boosting prices, with the two markets remaining rather narrowly balanced. There are signs of a recovery in manufacturing in Europe and the US, while purchasing manager indices remain at neutral levels. Weaker demand for steelmaking raw materials and thermal coal in China will mostly be offset by incremental consumption in other regions. Nickel and lithium will remain oversupplied in 2026. Precious metals continue to benefit from geo-political tensions and investment demand.

Industrial strategies across regions are diverging. China continues its push into high-end manufacturing and tech sectors. The US is keen to re-shore all manufacturing, from basic industries to technology; huge investment into AI, data centres, IT and required infrastructure is underway. Europe strives to establish its own greentech and high-end manufacturing supply chains.

Duplicating industrial capacities in several regions requires significant investment and materials. Increasing global power demand linked to improving living standards, electrification and power-hungry tech applications supports higher demand for base and battery materials.

The full report, Global Mining Outlook 2026, is available at www.fitchratings.com.