December 27, 2026 - Metallurgical coal prices are expected to remain flat through 2026 before seeing a slight uptick in 2027, according to the latest Australia Resources and Energy report.

Kallanish notes the report expects prices to hold steady near current levels of $190/tonne.

“Demand and supply are expected to remain roughly in balance, with stronger Indian imports being offset by additional seaborne supply,” the report says.

On the supply side, Australian export volumes are projected to climb to 150 million tonnes in 2025–26, reaching 161mt by 2026–27.

“Increasing volumes from new projects were offset by the impact of lower production at some existing mines due to sequencing and maintenance,” the report notes.

However, weather remains a significant wildcard. Indicators of a La Niña event and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole suggest a wetter-than-average summer, which could disrupt production and shipping schedules.

Despite the volume growth, export earnings are forecasted to soften. Revenues are expected to slide from AUD 39 billion ($25.99 billion) in 2024–25 to between AUD 36–37 billion over the following two fiscal years.