February 8, 2026 - India’s commitment to step up purchases of US energy products, including coking coal, could reshape its import mix and potentially pressure suppliers such as Russia, Australia and Singapore, according to a Moneycontrol analysis.

The shift follows a joint India-US statement indicating New Delhi’s intent to purchase about $500 billion worth of US energy products, aircraft components, technology goods and coking coal over the next five years. Alongside this, Washington has moved to ease tariff pressures on Indian exports, further strengthening bilateral trade momentum.

“India intends to purchase $500 billion of U.S. energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts, precious metals, technology products, and coking coal over the next 5 years,” the statement released in the early hours of February 7 read.

Coking coal, a critical input for steelmaking, has already seen changing supplier dynamics in recent years. Australia remains India’s dominant supplier, but its share has steadily declined from about 68 percent in 2019 to roughly 44.5 percent in 2025 (till November). The US has simultaneously expanded its footprint, with its share rising from around 8 percent in 2019 to about 14.5 percent in 2025, indicating the growing competitiveness of American shipments.

Russia represents a more recent entrant whose position could be particularly vulnerable. Its share in India’s coking coal imports rose sharply after the pandemic — from just 1.1 percent in 2019 to over 11 percent by 2025 — helped partly by discounted supplies and shifting geopolitical trade patterns. However, increased US supply commitments could reverse some of those gains, especially if pricing and logistics remain favourable for American exporters.

Singapore, largely a trading hub rather than a producer, has also seen its share rise over the period, reaching about 11 percent in 2025. Any structural shift towards direct sourcing from the US could also reduce intermediary trade.

India’s coking coal imports peaked at over $20 billion in 2022 before moderating to about $10.2 billion in 2025, suggesting both price effects and diversification strategies at play. Australia still dominates in absolute terms, but a declining share indicates gradual supplier diversification.

For Russia, already facing a declining share of oil exports to India, a potential shift in coking coal could add to trade headwinds.