February 10, 2026 - China’s main coal industry body sees a drop in imports this year and potentially higher domestic production after Indonesia moved to restrict shipments in an attempt to boost prices.

The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association cut its forecast for the country’s imports of the fossil fuel to 465 million tons in 2026, it said in a statement on Monday. That’s down from a projection of 480 million tons about three weeks ago.

China produced a record 4.8 billion tons of coal last year, despite rising pressure on the industry due to concerns over climate and mine safety, and the Indonesian curbs may increase the chances that production will keep increasing. The CCTD estimates local output will reach 4.86 billion tons this year, but said it could go higher if there’s a sharper drop in imports.

Indonesia, the world’s biggest exporter of power station coal, flagged in early January that it’s looking to slash output by nearly a quarter this year to around 600 million tons in an attempt to boost returns. The move has supported prices, with Australian thermal coal futures, the regional benchmark, rising around 9% so far this year.

“Global supply will tighten if Indonesia’s annual production falls below 700 million tons,” said Li Zhiyuan, a bulk commodity analyst at Kpler. Fellow coal exporters Russia and Colombia could be the biggest beneficiaries, he said.

The Southeast Asian nation accounted for about 40% of China’s coal imports last year, and its fuel is widely used by coastal power plants when it’s cheaper than domestic supplies. Chinese thermal coal prices have yet to reflect Indonesia’s plans, partly due to a lull in trading before the Lunar New Year, but the CCTD said there was growing pressure for them to move higher.